Post-debate realities, what's next?
Decisions, Decisions...
For those of us who watched the CNN debate and saw what I saw— heard what I heard— Biden shit the bed. Gloss over as much as you want, but the performance of Joe Biden left much to be desired as he struggled throughout the night for clarity and command. Donald Trump, on the other hand, was remarkably true to form as he dodged and lied his way through the 90-minute debacle. For those of us who were so hopeful that "dark Brandon" would show, we were shaken-- at least I was. Trump supporters were treated to his old standard, a litany of lies that they had already accepted and chose to believe.
To be sure, nothing that either man said on that stage would change the minds of partisans. What may have changed is the opinion of the vast number of independent voters. Arguably, many of those non-partisan electors could not have been swayed to vote for Trump because of Biden’s performance because they would also have to agree to vote for the other guy whose past and present performance as president and as a man has given them reasons to be on the fence. If they were convinced that his lies were true the race would have been over long before the debate. The debate may have left them with the question, “Is there a choice, here?”
Well, there is. This race comes down to Joe Biden’s conscience and his knowing that his opponent has none. The incoherence and lack of focus that Trump had famously shown in recent public appearances was suddenly visited on Biden. His repeated use of fillers, his inane decision to go down the golf analogy rabbit hole— could Trump carry his own bag, and whose handicap was lower--were a rather shocking realization that Biden was losing his fastball by engaging in such trivia. Scranton Joe has to decide whether to go back home, or soldier on knowing his performance has placed democracy in peril. In either case he has placed his legacy in jeopardy. This is a decent man, a very good president, and one who has served his country and his family well.
A Choice of Evil...
The question the debate has raised on both sides is less can he win, but what happens if he does win? It’s a sentiment that could be appropriate for both participants. So, what’s next? As voters ponder the future if Biden soldiers on, his VP becomes a more important consideration. For those who consider Biden’s age and believe that the debate has demonstrated he is in decline, Kamala Harris’ ability to step in becomes an issue. In this scenario, Trump’s VP choice also becomes incrementally more important. If Trump chooses an able nominee, someone many would believe would offer the country a reasonable replacement, then the choice widens to include him or her in voters’ calculation. Nikki Haley is a far different consideration than Tim Scott, Doug Burgum different from Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance, or Elise Stefanik. Trump’s choice is either to satisfy his ego or risk another Mike Pence.
But if Joe Biden decides that his debate performance has permanently damaged his struggle to ensure that Trump never again gets the opportunity to inhabit the White House, the calculus changes dramatically. Replacing the top of the ticket at this time is possible, but rife with danger. The hard part is creating a new and viable ticket. A top-of-the-ticket that denies Kamala Harris first standing would likely alienate parts of the Democratic base that the party desperately needs to win. Women and blacks would certainly expect that she is the most deserving and most logical nominee while others in the party see a minority and a woman as a valiant, but in the end, an unelectable option. Trump’s huge advantages among white voters, males, and Hillary Clinton’s “deplorables” gives pause. In 2016 and 2020 white women voted for Trump (margins of 2% and 7% respectively) despite women overall voting for the Democratic candidate in those elections by +15% for Hillary and +11% for Biden. A Harris leading ticket would challenge the consensus belief that she could outperform either Clinton or Biden at the top of the ticket. In addition, any instability at the top of the ticket enhances third-party candidates’ impact on the final result.
In any event, Harris may well be challenged at the August Democratic convention if Biden were to decide to opt-out now. Opening up the convention is dangerous. It would invite chaos and could cause disunity. There are no glib answers to the Democratic Party’s problem— to the nation’s problem. Blaming Joe Biden is not helpful. In a world that is bombarded with imagery, the one left behind in Atlanta was devastating. If Biden were younger, this debate could be overcome in future appearances. But the truth is Biden’s age-defying abilities are now limited by the reality that actuarially more of the same or worse can be expected in the coming years. That is true of all of us— age is an unrelenting foe.
The danger of a second Trump term, however, may be infinitely more threatening to the rest of Americans than Biden’s advancing age. Only 3 years separate the two but a Trump return to power would be toxic. If Biden should decide to stay on, he must agree to full disclosure. That means disclosing medical and cognitive test results and opening up to more public scrutiny through press conferences in addition to his scheduled staged campaign stops. This is a long shot that would rely on the public’s understanding of the imminent dangers of a Trump return to office. It matters even more if the role of underdog he may have placed himself in after the debate can be turned into an advantage with Biden acknowledging his poor performance and adopting the mantra he used the day after— that he will pick himself up, get his shit together, and start again. The scenario fits Biden’s life experience, he is a fighter who has lost and lost more important things than a debate. He has fallen and gotten back up.
Biden has always been a David pitted against Goliath. His rise to power has been understated and far different from most presidents. Using a different analogy, Joe’s status was enhanced when his oldies but goodies tune was matched to Barack Obama’s cool jazz. It made us forget his age and focus on his wisdom. He was never mistaken for a savant, but he oozed empathy and earnestness. He had become a mensch. On the other hand, Trump was known as a bully and a liar, a feckless businessman whose 6 bankruptcies were his apparent audition for his television stardom. In the debate this week when Biden called him out as a whiner and a loser the remark had to have hit home. Even Trump’s wives and children might agree. Unfortunately, Biden’s debate performance has made those comparisons a sidebar to the issue of age and competence over the next four years. Only Joe Biden can make assurances that he will remain competent.
A Fine Mess...
If Biden decides, or is convinced by others, that he is not up to the task the way forward is still problematic. Does Harris follow with a resignation of her own and call for an open convention? If so, that places her in the candidate pool that will include the usual suspects. Ouch! Of the elected delegates to the Democratic Convention, Harris has a huge advantage over the others since the primaries presumed she was the running mate. I believe Harris could win but the race would be difficult. A damaged Biden/Harris ticket may well be stronger than any pairing that appears likely if Biden were to quit. Harris/Whitmer, Newsom, Beshear, et.al. tickets, must be sold nationally in short order as a “change” rather than a desperation ticket.
Some might say that Democrats are stuck with Joe Biden, but Republicans, for their part, are stuck with Donald J. Trump. his 34 convictions, and civil court losses. He may not stutter, but he spits. He may appear more vigorous than Joe on the debate stage, but the GOP bears the scars of his lies, his misdeeds, and his mindless indifference to governance— a trait he so publicly displayed in his near-disastrous 4 years in office. Who else could survive the historic mishandling of a pandemic, defend a seditionist band of anarchists who desecrated our nation’s Capitol, and maintain a lie disproven by more than 60 court cases that he was beaten by Joe Biden in a fair and free election? Despite the closeness of the Electoral College count in battleground states where 44,000 votes decided the winner, Biden’s plurality of 7 million votes more than doubled Hillary Clinton’s vote advantage in 2016.
This is what is at stake now, Pretending that the debate this week was inconsequential would be a mistake. The race is still winnable. The real question Democrats must answer, and quickly, is whether Joe Biden has been irreparably damaged in the eyes of voters. Is there a replacement that would convince voters that he or she could defeat Trump?
The debate is worrisome but not as worrisome as another 4 years with Republicans in power Can we agree to convince ourselves of that? It is more than the presidency, it’s the courts and Congress-- women’s rights, civil rights, and human rights. In the grand scheme of things, an out-of-touch Joe Biden is a better option than an out-of-his-mind Trump. For Biden to remain as a candidate more than Democrats must be convinced that, of the risks involved, an aging Biden is more acceptable than the alternative. In retrospect, a different choice at this point is a luxury that democracy is unable to afford.
Staying the course may not be the best option. It is also not the only one. For all the good he has done as president, Joe Biden holds our future in his hands. “Will he?” or “Won’t he?” has given way to,” Should we?” More than us, he has to convince himself that he is acting more on behalf of his country than himself.
More than that, he has to summon the faith he has had in the American people and the Democratic Party. If in the end, he believes that he is the only one who can save America from Donald Trump, then maybe America is beyond saving.